Overview
Ottawa is holding permanent resident (PR) admissions steady at 380,000 per year from 2026 to 2028 while sharply tightening new temporary resident (TR) intake. The government’s stated aim is to restore a sustainable pace after years of rapid growth in international students and temporary workers. As of January 2025, temporary residents were just over 3 million people—about 7.3% of Canada’s population. The plan targets a reduction in the temporary share to 5% by the end of 2026.
Sharp Decline in Temporary Resident Admissions
After several years of expansion, the headline change is the introduction of caps to reduce pressure on housing, healthcare, and infrastructure. The share of temporary residents more than doubled from 3.3% in 2018 to about 7.5% in 2024; the government now intends to bring this back toward pre-pandemic levels.
Projected Temporary Resident Admissions (2026–2028)
| Category | 2025 (Previous Plan) | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | Change 2025–2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Temporary Residents | 673,650 | 385,000 | 370,000 | 370,000 | ↓ 43% |
| Workers (TFW & IMP) | 367,750 | 230,000 | 220,000 | 220,000 | ↓ 37% |
| Students | 305,900 | 155,000 | 150,000 | 150,000 | ↓ 49% |
The largest reduction falls on international students, with new study-permit approvals halved by 2026. Work-permit issuance is also curtailed under both the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP). According to Budget 2025, reduced TR intake will lower fee revenues by an estimated $168.2 million over four years, but Ottawa argues the shift will restore control, clarity, and consistency. Critics warn that food production, construction, and healthcare could face intensified labour shortages unless regional needs are addressed.
Permanent Resident Admissions: Stability Amid Contraction
While temporary migration shrinks, permanent immigration remains steady at 380,000 per year between 2026 and 2028. This signals a focus on integration rather than expansion.
Planned Permanent Resident Admissions (2026–2028)
| Category | 2026 Target | 2027 Target | 2028 Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall Permanent Residents | 380,000 | 380,000 | 380,000 |
| Economic Immigration | 239,800 | 244,700 | 244,700 |
| Family Reunification | 84,000 | 81,000 | 81,000 |
| Refugees & Humanitarian | 56,200 | 54,300 | 54,300 |
| French-Speaking Outside Quebec | 9% (30,267) | 9.5% (31,825) | 10.5% (35,175) |
Economic Share To Rise, Total Volume Unchanged
The economic class share grows from 59% in 2025 to 64% by 2028, aligning with workforce priorities in healthcare, the trades, and technology. Keeping total PR numbers flat reflects concern about absorption capacity, particularly in housing, healthcare, and education.
Start-Up Visa and Federal Business Class
The 2025 planning documents do not publish a distinct projected number for the Start-Up Visa (SUV) program within 2026–2028. In 2024, 7,635 admissions were recorded under the broader Federal Business Class (SUV + Self-Employed). The overall Economic Class is projected at approximately 239,800 admissions in 2026, rising to 244,700 in 2027 and 2028. SUV admissions remain wrapped into those totals without a separate target; the expectation is that similar admission levels could continue as the current inventory (approximately 42,900) is reduced through new application-management powers contemplated under Bill C-12.
Regularisation and Integration Measures
To soften the impact of tighter entry rules, two regularisation measures are planned:
-
Recognising Protected Persons as Permanent Residents
A two-year initiative will grant PR to eligible Protected Persons unable to return home.
Fiscal cost: $120.4 million over four years (from 2026–27)
Objective: Accelerate integration and reduce backlogs -
Transitioning Work Permit Holders to Permanent Status
Up to 33,000 work-permit holders with strong ties to Canada will gain PR between 2026 and 2027.
Fiscal cost: $19.4 million over four years (from 2026–27)
Aim: Reward economic contribution and community connection
These measures demonstrate compassion and fairness but are small compared with the broader reduction in new entrants.
Regional and Sectoral Implications
Some regions—especially rural and remote communities—depend heavily on temporary foreign workers. IRCC has indicated it will factor in regional and sectoral realities, including:
• Industries affected by tariffs and supply-chain pressures
• Agricultural and food-processing sectors reliant on seasonal labour
• Healthcare and elder-care roles with chronic shortages
Implementation details on regional adjustments are still pending.
Fiscal and Population Impact
• Net fiscal cost: $168.2 million over four years beginning 2026–27 due to lower TR fee revenues and integration initiatives
• Permanent share of population growth: under 1% per year
• Temporary residents: targeted to fall to 5% of the population by end-2026
These adjustments are meant to slow population growth after the record surge of 2023–2025. Supporters say the reduction is overdue; critics fear it could cool economic momentum and widen labour gaps in certain sectors.
Balancing Control and Compassion
The 2026–2028 plan is a decisive recalibration. It aims to balance economic needs with public capacity and restore predictability after exceptional post-pandemic growth. Permanent immigration remains robust, with a clear tilt toward economic pathways, while deep cuts to temporary admissions will be felt across universities, agriculture, hospitality, and small businesses that rely on foreign talent.
Comparison: 2025 to 2026 Permanent & Temporary Resident Targets
| Admission Type | 2025 Target | 2026 Target | Percent Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Permanent Residents | 395,000 | 380,000 | −3.8% |
| Economic Class (subset) | ~250,000* | 239,800 | −4.1% |
| Family Reunification | ~85,000* | 84,000 | −1.2% |
| Refugees & Humanitarian | ~60,000* | 56,200 | −6.3% |
| Total Temporary Residents | 673,650* | 385,000 | −42.8% |
| Temporary Workers | ~370,000* | 230,000 | −37.8% |
| International Students | ~300,000* | 155,000 | −48.3% |
Frequently Asked Questions
How many immigrants will Canada accept from 2026 to 2028?
380,000 permanent residents each year, while new temporary resident admissions fall from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026 and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
Why is the government cutting temporary resident numbers so drastically?
To reduce pressure on housing, infrastructure, and services, and to respond to public concerns that overall immigration levels have been too high. Critics warn some sectors could face tighter labour markets if caps are not regionally calibrated.
What happens to international students under this plan?
New study-permit approvals are cut nearly in half, from over 300,000 in 2025 to 155,000 in 2026. Students already in Canada are not affected by the cap.
Will fewer temporary workers mean fewer paths to permanent residency?
Not necessarily. While new work permits will decline, up to 33,000 existing workers will transition to PR in 2026–2027, and the economic share of PR admissions rises.
How will this plan affect population growth?
The plan is expected to slow overall growth. PR admissions remain under 1% of the population annually, and the temporary resident share is targeted to fall to 5% by the end of 2026.
Krilaha Immigration can help individuals, families, and employers navigate these changes—strategising PR pathways (Express Entry, PNPs), planning study or work options.
Primary sources: IRCC’s Supplementary Information for the 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, Budget 2025 (Chapter 1), and Statistics Canada NPR data.